SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA
ZCZC AP47
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 1, 2017
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA
We skipped last week's bulletin due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Outlook for the near term shows solar flux at 72 on December 1, 70 on December
2 to 7, 71 on December 8, 72 on December 9 to 12, 74 on December 13, 75 on
December 14 to 16, 74 on December 17, 73 on December 18 to 20, 74 on December
21 and 22, 76 on December 23 to 29, 72 on December 30 and 31, 70 on January 1
to 3, 71 on January 4, 72 on January 5 to 8, 74 on January 9, 75 on January 10
to 12, 74 on January 13 and 73 on January 14.
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 1 to 3, then 32, 36, 18, 12 and 10
on December 4 to 8, 5 on December 9 and 10, then 12, 15, 12 and 8 on December
11 to 14, 5 on December 15 and 16, then 8, 25, and 10 on December 17 to 19, 8
on December 20 and 21, 5 on December 22 and 23, 15 on December 24, then 12 on
December 25 to 27, 8 on December 28, 5 on December 29 and 30, then 35, 40, 28,
20 and 10 on December 31 through January 4, 5 on January 5 and 6, then 12, 15,
12, 8 and 5 on January 7 to 11, 8 on January 12 and 13 and 25 on January 14.
From F. K. Janda, OK1HH his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period
December 1 to 27, 2017.
Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on December 2, 16, 23, 26
Mostly quiet on December 1, 8, 14, 17, 21, 24 and 25
Quiet to unsettled on December 3 and 4, 9 to 12, 15, 20, 27
Quiet to active on December 7, 13, 18
Active to disturbed on December 5 and 6, 19, 22
Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on December (1
and 2, 4,) 5, 7 and 8, 17 to 20, (21 and 22, 24 and 25).
Remark: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
A new video from Dr. Skov:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lbcSEM3DtI
Jeff, N8II in West Virginia wrote:
"Tonight, November 30, is pretty exceptional on the low bands. On 160M several
Europeans including SM3EVR in Sweden and a G4 Great Britain are generating
steady pile ups. The ARRL 160M contest starts tomorrow and USA big guns are
flexing their muscles. I also managed a marginal QSO with S01WS, Western
Sahara for a new country on 160M. Several EU stations were worked on 80M CW
including Norway and Lithuania.
In the CQWW CW DX contest Nov 25 and 26, conditions overall were better than
last year with no disturbances of consequence throughout and probably slightly
lower solar flux. Last year was disturbed until around 1200Z Sunday.
160M was productive for the big guns the first night. I managed QSOs with
Scotland, Ireland, Great Britain, and Hungary along with Caribbean and the
north edge of SA running low power 100W.
Conditions on 80 M could not have been much better through 0500Z the first
night. I worked Iceland, Kaliningrad, EU Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia,
and Macedonia and many other EU countries along with several QSOs with West
Africa (Canary Is, Morocco, and Madeira).
40M was in good shape to central, western, and southern EU the first 3 hours
first night. One Caribbean station claimed over 3600 QSOs on 40. Asian
stations were very difficult to find and work for me including the Arabian
Peninsula where I heard Oman and Saudi Arabia.
20M was open very well to Russia before sunrise both days and Sunday I managed
to get many to answer my CQs. I worked a RA9 station in Asia but his zone was
16, the same as EU Russia. I never heard any Russians from zones 17 to 19,
very unusual. Every part of EU was loud early both days, but mainly only
western EU was workable by 1600Z and very few EU were worked past 1830Z. Many
stations were active from West Africa, but I did not hear AF zones 34 or 36.
V6, Micronesia was worked short path around 2100Z Saturday and V7, Marshall Is.
on Sunday. Australia was also worked long path in the 2000Z hour and New
Zealand at 0130Z short path. Signals from the south were workable all day and
peaked around 2100 to 2300Z.
15M was fairly marginal with only southern and western EU the first day with a
much better but fairly short opening Sunday around 1300 to 1415Z which included
QSOs with many northern EU countries
including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, northern Finland, Denmark, and
Sweden. One southern Russian (R7) was worked and western EU lingered past 15Z.
African signals were good as were the
Caribbean and SA. Several Hawaiians, New Zealand, Tonga, and Micronesia were
worked in the Pacific.
10 meters was barely open Saturday mostly only to the Sao Paolo, PY2 area and
only a bit better Sunday to Argentina, Costa Rica, and Panama. There was
sporadic E to Wisconsin and I worked a strong signal from British Columbia via
either double hop Es or F2.
I meant to mention about northern EU 15M: This opening was very unusual for
late Nov and SFI 72 and 73, probably the best to this area since the CQ WW SSB
weekend a month ago."
Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas wrote:
"The 2017 Winter E-skip season appears to be underway.
There was a nice 3 hour sporadic-E opening on 6 meters November 28/29 UTC.
Here in eastern Kansas EM28 -- the opening started with both the WB7PMP/b EM95
and the 5 watt XE2O/b EL05 6 meter beacons booming in at 2350z November 28.
On 50 MHz I logged W1RAJ EM72 SSB, W4RER EL89 CW, K5VWZ in rare grid EL28 on
SSB, NM5Z EM41, and K4DJ EM95 on CW and a loud WB7PMP EM95 between 0015 - 0200z
November 29. I noted FT8 spots for double hop sporadic-E between K1TOL Maine
to XE2JS DL68 at 0123z. N2CJ FN30 spotted N7HD DM34 at 0104z and WB7PMP EM95
noted AA7WB DM26 at 0225z, both SSB 2x Es. A good mix of SSB, CW and the FT8
digital mode during the Es opening. A tip to FT8 ops, when conditions are
good, contacts can be made quicker on SSB and CW."
Jon mentioned rare grid EL28. Most of this grid is in the Gulf of Mexico and
south of Houston, as seen at http://bit.ly/2AoQ6Qu .
He also noted the winter E-skip season, which we hope will be active during the
ARRL 10 meter contest, next weekend, December 9 and 10, 2017:
http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
The contest occurs a few days before the peak of the Geminids meteor shower
which could enhance ten meter conditions.
Scott Bidstrup, TI/W7RI in Costa Rica wrote two weeks ago on November 17:
"Bands down here in the single-digit latitudes are showing the effects of the
approaching solar minimum. There hasn't been a single opening on six meters of
any consequence here since last September, and normally, we would be in the
middle of our evening TEP season into South America by now. I've only seen a
handful of FT8 decodes from South America and by now the band should be busy
with activity every night. Since the FT8 protocol permits signal detection at
levels well below those of traditional methods such as CW and SSB, the utter
lack of decode activity suggests that propagation via the evening TEP mode has
all but stalled out. Two years ago, I was busy every night by now.
On the HF bands, though, the approaching solar minimum has actually been good
news for us here, as the solar ultraviolet and X-ray emissions that excite the
D-layer and cause us our mid-day blackout on the HF bands, has been getting
progressively weaker, and so the mid-day blackout has been shorter and less
intense recently. There's been quite a bit of TEP activity on ten meters in the
afternoons here recently - just about every day, the 10m band has been open
from here into CE, LU, CX and PY. But every day it's always the same stations,
so there's little incentive to take
advantage of it once you've worked them all several times. On 20 through 12,
though, there's been plenty of daytime DX from other regions to choose from,
with the bands opening into Europe by 10AM and not closing to the Far East
until after sunset.
20m has often been open till late in the evening, occasionally even through the
night, usually into North and South America with a smattering of Europeans, and
40 has been open almost around the clock without fail, often with some good DX,
particularly in the early morning. The lower D-layer absorption means that we
are frequently working the States in the middle of the day on 40, and every
day, without exception, we can see FT8 decodes all day long, even with modest
antennas. Even using weak signal modes, that was seldom possible just as
recently as last year.
The great blessing that FT8 has been for 160, combined with the lower D-layer
absorption means that grayline conditions have been workable for much longer
than in the past, and several of my friends have worked some very respectable
DX with very modest antennas on 160 including Mellish Reef and several African
stations, using 80m dipoles tuned with a tuner."
A possible future solar disturbance like the Carrington Event in the nineteenth
century is described somewhat breathlessly, over the top, and as if the event
is actually predicted to happen in the next few minutes. Not sure I trust the
source, but this one actually proposes a solution, a 100,000 ton coil sitting
between Earth and our sun:
http://bit.ly/2BrEdbH
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and
tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for November 16 through 22, 2017 were 15, 26, 14, 0, 0, 0, and
0, with a mean of 7.9. 10.7 cm flux was 73.2, 76.4, 76.1, 74.4, 73.6, 73.2,
and 73.4, with a mean of 74.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 6, 6, 5,
8, 28, and 10, with a mean of 11. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 5,
5, 5, 7, 16, and 7, with a mean of 8.
Sunspot numbers for November 23 through 29, 2017 were 0, 0, 13, 15, 15, 14, and
12, with a mean of 9.9. 10.7 cm flux was 72.4, 74.1, 74.3, 75.5, 73.6, 71.9,
and 72.6, with a mean of 73.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 10, 7, 3,
5, 8, and 5, with a mean of 6.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 8,
4, 2, 4, 6, and 4, with a mean of 5.
NNNN
/EX
)\/(ark
Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it
wrong...
... SC also brought us mustard sauce on pig.
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* Origin: (1:3634/12.73)
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