AWUS01 KWNH 281736
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-282335-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0939
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024
Areas affected...Eastern AZ...Much of Central and Western NM
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 281735Z - 282335Z
SUMMARY...Monsoonal moisture entrenched across eastern AZ through
much of central and western NM will foster pockets of heavy
showers and thunderstorms later today. Some instances of flash
flooding will be possible, and especially for the more sensitive
burn scar locations and arroyos.
DISCUSSION...The late-morning GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows multiple MCVs situated across southeast AZ through central
NM which are embedded within a broader mid-level shortwave
circulation that is seen drifting north-northeastward across the
region. There is plenty of monsoonal moisture once again
entrenched across the region as evidenced by the NESDIS Blended
TPW and CIRA-ALPW data sets, with the moisture somewhat
concentrated in the mid and upper-level parts of the vertical
column.
A rather substantial amount of morning cloud cover will temper the
build-up of surface-based instability in the short-term, but
gradually there will be a sufficient level of diurnal heating and
increasing instability for a renewed round of convective
initiation going into the afternoon hours. This will be further
supported by the remnant MCV activity over the region along with
multiple differential heating boundaries and orographics with
localized upslope flow helping to focus convective development.
The PWs across the region are on the order of 1.5+ standard
deviations above normal, and with the build-up of instability over
the next several hours, the areas of showers and thunderstorms
that initiate will be capable of heavy rainfall rates that may
reach 1 to 2 inches/hour.
A look at the 12Z HREF guidance suggests at least localized
rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with isolated heavier amounts by
later this afternoon. Areas of southeast AZ and western NM are
generally favored for the heavier rainfall amounts today, but
areas farther east into portions of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains
and the Sacramento Mountains will tend to have somewhat more
favorable orographics and may have locally similar rainfall
totals. Given proximity of multiple sensitive burn scar locations
and the areal arroyos, there may be instances of flash flooding
later today from these pockets of heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Orrison
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-e8oHsLGqeBR4QNnNehFodSZNTCoTFL2diOwtFrVv7YWvcUZfNO0iq2bIBPNiPb9j2RI=
DEE2yCHtd2Vj4vF50W_TjrE$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PSR...PUB...TWC...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 36990549 36460470 35190435 33910441 33390444=20
32660446 31860490 31590700 31290837 31290955=20
31311027 31661101 32431189 33591219 34511278=20
35251266 35771209 35991086 36040974 36210888=20
36590782 36920682=20
=3D =3D =3D
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