ACUS48 KWNS 110850
SWOD48
SPC AC 110848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Multiple mid-level perturbations should move eastward across the
northern/central CONUS from the middle of this week through next
weekend. This should generally act to suppress upper ridging to the
southern states through at least Day 5/Thursday. Low predictability
for organized severe potential remains apparent in this flow regime
given the low-amplitude nature of relevant features. But,
medium-range guidance shows a tendency for a more amplified pattern
by late week into the upcoming weekend as an upper trough/low
potentially develops across the western states, ridging builds over
the central CONUS, and a separate upper trough/low remains over the
eastern CONUS. Regardless of these developments, isolated severe
potential may exist on Day 4/Wednesday across parts of the
northern/central Plains and perhaps Upper Midwest in association
with one of the mid-level perturbations. Some threat for organized
severe thunderstorms will probably continue each day through the
extended forecast period across parts of the Plains into the Midwest
and vicinity, although delineating regions of greater potential
remains highly uncertain.
..Gleason.. 08/11/2024
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