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Subject: FidoNews 40:01 [02/0 Date: Sat Jan 07 2023 11:34 pm
From: Michiel van der Vlist To: Gerrit Kuehn

Hello Gerrit,

On Saturday January 07 2023 11:27, you wrote to me:

 GK> v4 will stay in use behind routers, e.g., in private homes or
 GK> companies, for very, very long. It is much easier to set up and
 GK> maintain, all devices support it, and all maintenance staff knows how
 GK> to work with it. Probably its usage will decline, but a complete
 GK> phase-out (even at the 95% level) will take decades.

IPv4 will stay around for a while but I don't think it will last many decades.
That IPv4 is easier to setup and maintain is a misunderstanding. IPv6 is
different from IPv4 and one has to get rid of "IPv4 think" to appreciate it, but
once one gets to know it, it is easier than IPv4.

In the transition phase keeping IPv4 along IPv6 will be necessary for a while,
but keeping two systems active in parallel involves more cost and more work than
just maintaining one and manufactures will realise that and fase out IPv4
support eventually.

 GK>>> Among other things, I'd also like to keep accessability of my
 GK>>> home network from my workplace (which is, up no now and for all
 GK>>> foreseeable future, an v4-only outfit).

 MvdV>> Time to start exerting some pressure on your boss to implement
 MvdV>> IPv6 on his side. ;-)

 GK> No way. We're talking about a ClassB university network.

That's no excuse. On the contrary, Universities have a role model. They should
lead.

Not going IPv6 and staying with IPv4 until Kingdom Come is just not an option.
IPv6 is here and it is not going away. Sooner or later one will face the fact
that portions of the Internet are inaccesable without IPv6. The longer one
postpones, the harder it will get.

 GK> There are plenty of ipv4 addresses available, and on the other hand
 GK> way too few people to handle a migration of this size.

That /16 should be an incentive to move to IPv6 ASAP. When they go IPv6 they no
longer need all those addresses en they can SELL that /16 on the market. At the
going rate of EUR 55/address it will bring about 3.6 MEUR. Better not wait too
long, in 2020 the price of IPv4 has doubled just as in 2021. But in 2022 it
remained quasi stable between EUR 50 and EUR 60. Making predictions is hard,
especially when it concerns the future and so we do not know /when/ the bubble
will burst. But that some day it will, it a certainty. So...


Cheers, Michiel

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